A RESEARCH PAPER ON HOW CLIMATE CHANGE HAS AFFECTED THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1.0 Introduction
The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. From glacial periods (or "ice ages") where ice covered significant portions of the Earth to interglacial periods where ice retreated to the poles or melted entirely. Since the Industrial Revolution (around 1750), human activities have substantially added to the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels and biomass (living matter such as vegetation) has also resulted in emissions of aerosols that absorb and emit heat, and reflect light. The addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. The changes in the atmosphere have likely influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, the climate varies naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging.

2.0 Theoretical Literature Review
This section provides a summary of the atmosphere and climate changes observed during the Industrial Era and current understanding of why the changes have occurred. Also in this section explain in details the effect of climate change with regards to economic development.

2.1 Atmosphere and climate changes
The release of greenhouse gases and aerosols resulting from human activities are changing the amount of radiation coming into and leaving the atmosphere, likely contributing to changes in climate. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have historically varied as a result of many natural processes (e.g. volcanic activity, changes in temperature, etc). However, since the Industrial Revolution humans have added a significant amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests and other activities. Because greenhouse gases absorb and emit heat, increasing their concentrations in the atmosphere will tend to have a warming effect. But the rate and amount of temperature increase is not known with absolute certainty. Changes in the atmospheric concentration of the major greenhouse gases are described below:

2.1.1Carbon dioxide (CO2)
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA), 2006, Carbon dioxide concentrations has increased in atmosphere from approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to 382 ppm in 2006 by 36 percent increase. Almost all of the increase is due to human activities. The current rate of increase in CO2 concentrations is about 1.9 ppmv/year. Present CO2 concentrations are higher than any time in at least the last 650,000 years (IPCC, 2007).

2.1.2Methane (CH4)
Methane (CH4) is more abundant in the Earth’s atmosphere now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years Methane concentrations increased sharply during most of the 20th century and are now 148% above pre-industrial levels. In recent decades, the rate of increase has slowed considerably (IPCC, 2007).


2.1.3 Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide (N2O) has increased approximately 18 percent in the past 200 years and continues to increase (see Figure 3). For about 11,500 years before the industrial period, the concentration of N2O varied only slightly. It increased relatively rapidly toward the end of the 20th century (IPCC, 2007).

2.1.4Tropospheric ozone (O3)
Tropospheric ozone is created by chemical reactions from automobile, power plant and other industrial and commercial source emissions in the presence of sunlight. It is estimated that O3 has increased by about 36% since the pre-industrial era, although substantial variations exist for regions and overall trends. Besides being a greenhouse gas, ozone can also be a harmful air pollutant at ground level, especially for people with respiratory diseases and children and adults who are active outdoors. Measures are being taken to reduce ozone emissions in the U.S. (through the Clean Air Act) and also in other countries (IPCC, 2007).

2.1.5 Fluorinated gases
Fluorinated gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are frequently used as substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs and are increasing in the atmosphere. These various fluorinated gases are sometimes called "high global warming potential greenhouse gases" because, molecule for molecule, they trap more heat than CO2 (IPCC, 2007).

2.1.6 Aerosols
The burning of fossil fuels and biomass (living matter such as vegetation) has resulted in aerosol emissions into the atmosphere. Aerosols absorb and emit heat, reflect light and, depending on their properties, can either cool or warm the atmosphere. (NASA, 2006)

2.2 Temperature Changes
Temperatures are changing in the lower atmosphere - from the Earth’s surface all the way through the stratosphere (9-14 miles above the Earth’s surface). Scientists are working to document temperature trends and determine their causes.

2.2.1Surface Temperature Change
Records from land stations and ships indicate that the global mean surface temperature warmed by between 1.0 and 1.7°F since 1850. These records indicate a near level trend in temperatures from 1880 to about 1910, a rise to 1945, a slight decline to about 1975, and a rise to present (NRC, 2006). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2007 that warming of the climate system is now “unequivocal,” based on observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 2007).
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA, 2006) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA, 2006):
· Since the mid 1970s, the average surface temperature has warmed about 1°F.
· The Earth’s surface is currently warming at a rate of about 0.32ºF/decade or 3.2°F/century.
· The five warmest years over last century have likely been: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006. The top 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1990.
· The warming trend is seen in both daily maximum and minimum temperatures, with minimum temperatures increasing at a faster rate than maximum temperatures.
· Land areas have tended to warm faster than ocean areas and the winter months have warmed faster than summer months.
· Widespread reductions in the number of days below freezing occurred during the latter half of the 20th century in the United States as well as most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere and areas of the Southern Hemisphere.
· Average temperatures in the Arctic have increased at almost twice the global rate in the past 100 years.
2.2.2Tropospheric Temperature Change
According to (NOAA, 2006), measurements of the Earth’s temperature taken by weather balloons (also known as radiosondes) and satellites from the surface to 5-8 miles into the atmosphere - the layer called the troposphere reveal warming trends as follows:
· For the period 1958-2006, temperatures measured by weather balloons warmed at a rate of 0.22°F per decade near the surface and 0.27°F per decade in the mid-troposphere. The 2006 global mid-troposphere temperatures were 1.01°F above the 1971-2000 average, the third warmest on record.
· For the period beginning in 1979, when satellite measurements of troposphere temperatures began, various satellite data sets for the mid-troposphere showed similar rates of warming — ranging from 0.09°F per decade to 0.34°F per decade, depending on the method of analysis.

2.2.3Stratospheric Temperature Change
Weather balloons and satellites have also taken temperature readings in the stratosphere – the layer 9-14 miles above the Earth’s surface. This level of the atmosphere has cooled. The cooling is consistent with observed stratospheric ozone depletion since ozone is a greenhouse gas and has a warming effect when present. It’s also likely that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the troposphere are contributing to cooling in the stratosphere as predicted by radioactive theory (EPA, 2001).

2.3 Effect of climate change on economic development
2.3.1 Health
Throughout the world, the prevalence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend largely on local climate. Extreme temperatures can lead directly to loss of life, while climate-related disturbances in ecological systems, such as changes in the range of infective parasites, can indirectly impact the incidence of serious infectious diseases. In addition, warm temperatures can increase air and water pollution, which in turn harms human health. Human health is strongly affected by social, political, economic, environmental and technological factors, including urbanization, affluence, scientific developments, individual behavior and individual vulnerability (e.g., genetic makeup, nutritional status, emotional well-being, age, gender and economic status). The extent and nature of climate change impacts on human health vary by region, by relative vulnerability of population groups, by the extent and duration of exposure to climate change itself and by society’s ability to adapt to or cope with the change.

According to (IPCC, 2007), Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (for example, more intense and frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, and economy. At this early stage the effects are small but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions. (WHO, 2003) reports that Climate change may increase the risk of some infectious diseases, particularly those diseases that appear in warm areas and are spread by mosquitoes and other insects. These "vector-borne" diseases include malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis. Also, algal blooms could occur more frequently as temperatures warm — particularly in areas with polluted waters — in which case diseases (such as cholera) that tend to accompany algal blooms could become more frequent. Higher temperatures, in combination with favorable rainfall patterns, could prolong disease transmission seasons in some locations where certain diseases already exist. In other locations, climate change will decrease transmission via reductions in rainfall or temperatures that are too high for transmission. For example, temperature and humidity levels must be sufficient for certain disease-carrying vectors, such as ticks that carry Lyme disease, to thrive. And climate change could push temperature and humidity levels either towards or away from optimum conditions for the survival rate of ticks.

2.3.2 Agriculture
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions. According to (IPCC, 2007), recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively affecting food, fiber and forestry.

2.3.3Ecosystems and natural resources
Climate is an integral part of ecosystems and organisms have adapted to their regional climate over time. Climate change is a factor that has the potential to alter ecosystems and the many resources and services they provide to each other and to society. Human societies depend on ecosystems for the natural, cultural, spiritual, recreational and aesthetic resources they provide.
In various regions across the world, some high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems have already been affected by changes in climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reviewed relevant published studies of biological systems and concluded that 20 percent to 30 percent of species assessed may be at risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2-3 °C (3.6-5.4 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2007). These changes can cause adverse or beneficial effects on species. For example, climate change could benefit certain plant or insect species by increasing their ranges. The resulting impacts on ecosystems and humans, however, could be positive or negative depending on whether these species were invasive (e.g., weeds or mosquitoes) or if they were valuable to humans (e.g., food crops or pollinating insects). The risk of extinction could increase for many species, especially those that are already endangered or at risk due to isolation by geography or human development, low population numbers, or a narrow temperature tolerance range. According to (IPCC, 2007), all regions of the world show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. Areas in which runoff is projected to decline are likely to face a reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources. The beneficial impacts of increased annual runoff in other areas are likely to be tempered in some areas by negative effects of increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply, water quality and flood risks. The US Environmental protection agency (EPA), 2001, reports that national Parks and other protected areas harbor unique environments and wildlife. This raises particular concerns about the vulnerability of these ecosystems to a changing climate. Many parks are designated to protect rare natural resources or particular species of plants and animals. Changes in climate could create new stresses on natural communities, and, in the absence of adaptation, lead to the loss of valued resources.

3.0 Empirical Literature Review
3.1 Climate change and poverty: Experience of communities around South Nguru Mountains, Mvomero District in Morogoro Region
The South Nguru Forest Landscape (1425 km2), located in the South Nguru Mountains at an altitude of between 760 to 2,300 metres above the sea level, comprises the Kanga Forest Reserve (67 km2), Nguru South Forest Reserve (184 km2) and Mkindo Forest Reserve (86 km2). The Landscape is located in the Mvomero district - Morogoro Region, it is inhabited by approximately 60,000 people.
Climate change is already occurring in South Nguru communities. It is having a disproportionate effect on the lives of poor people. Due to climate change impacts (more extreme weather, less predictable seasons), today South Nguru Mountains communities experience periodic droughts and flooding. Changes in the mean temperature and rainfall, and the increased variability of rainfall, together prolong the length of dry seasons annually and increase the severity of periodic droughts. Changes in climate have significant impacts on South Nguru’s rain-fed agriculture and food production. Warming has shortened the growing season and, together with reduced rainfall, reduces water availability. Also, warmer climate has increased crop losses caused by weeds, diseases and pests. (Parry et al., 1999).

Changes in climate have increased frequency and intensity of fires caused by human induce shifts in geographic distribution of plant species and associations and thus land cover. For example, grassland savannah is likely to replace forests and woodlands in many places. Deforestations have significant adverse consequences for economic and physical wellbeing in the area. Forests and woodlands are an important source of fuel in area, where biomass accounts for 90 percent of total energy use. About 80 percent of fuel wood is used for household consumption. The availability of fuel for cooking is important because it influences the nutritional value of diet (Barany et al., 2001).
Changes in climate and climate impacts have direct and indirect impacts on human health. Warming has increased the incidence of insect-borne diseases such as malaria, schistosomiasis and trypanosomiasis in the area. The increased frequency of droughts and flooding has increased the frequency and magnitude of epidemics of water-borne diseases such as typhoid and cholera, as well as to influence the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. There are also intimate connections between nutritional status and health. In general, malnutrition and food shortages have increased morbidity and mortality related to infectious diseases. (IPCC, 2007; McMichael et al., 1996; Patz et al., 2002)



4.0 Policy Review
Tanzania is committed to protect environment and natural resources, in order to make sure that climate change is rectified which caused by environment problems, the government has put in place policies which try to protect environment. Down here the paper will discuss three policies (environment, forest and tourism) with regards to respond to environment problems as the results of climate change. According to Tanzania environmental policy (1997), the policy document seeks provide the framework for making fundamental change that are needed to bring environmental considerations into the mainstream of decision making in Tanzania. Tanzania environmental policy seeks to provide policy guidelines, plans and give guidance to the determination of priority actions, and provides for monitoring and regular review of policies, plans and programmes. There is a clear cause and effect relationship between poverty and environmental degradation due to climate change. Environmental degradation as the result of change in climate leads to widespread poverty, equally, poverty is a habitual cause of environmental degradation as it undermines people’s capacity to manage resources wisely. The paper has realized that environmental protection is a social and economic necessity. It is an integral component of sustainable development. The Tanzania environment policy is clear that Tanzania has taken an active part in the preparation for, and during the United Nations conference on environment and development which enshrined the integration of environmental concerns and economic development in the Rio Genera declaration on Environment and development and Agenda 21. Also Tanzania is working closely with other countries in the region and the international community to contribute towards a peaceful, healthier and better global environment for present and future generations. Due to change in climate has caused many problems in environment. Tanzania has identified six major problems for urgent attention. These are problems of:-
· Land degradation
· Lack of accessible good quality water
· Environment pollutions
· Loss of wildlife habitats and biodiversity
· Deterioration of aquatic systems
· Deforestations
Each of these is important to the economic well being of the country and the health of the people. According to (URT, 1997), in order to solve environment problem caused by change in climate, the government has taken a number of important measures, to promote political and economic change. Efforts are being made by the government through economic reforms, to nudge the economic system towards a free market economy with increased role for the independent sector. The restructuring and adjustment of the economy, including macro-economic changes, will impact on the use and allocation of natural resources and on the environment.

5.0 Conclusion
It is important for the government to pay attention on early warning system. Natural disaster need for the government to educate people to adapt (versus coping) mechanisms. It is clear that climate change has an effect to peoples’ life. Climate change may cause health problems, decrease livelihoods productivity and food insecurity, loss of rich natural resource and emerge of conflict between pastoralists and farmers on limited pasture. In order to fight with the effect of climate change there is a need to take action at different levels of actors (i.e home, village, local government, nation, regions and international).